Data Heavy Week For The USD
Data Heavy Week For The USD

It’ll be a data heavy week for the US Dollar this week with a couple of interesting data points to keep on the radar. Markets will be eyeing incoming data like a hawk to gauge when the FED will start ramping up tapering discussions.


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The USD has been on a steady downtrend from the middle of last year, and recently there has been a few important factors such as Fed Policy, Reflation (expectations for higher growth and inflation globally) and Real Yields seeing investors maintain a bearish outlook on the greenback.

What would change that bias? Well, a material change in the three drivers pushing the Dollar lower. On the Reflation side one has to argue that a lot of the good news is reflected in the price already, given the more rangebound price action in things like equities, bond yields and commodities in recent weeks.

US exceptionalism is something that we expect to come back into focus for the US Dollar as a positive input given the massive divergence in the fiscal impulse between the US and the rest of the world. However, this should only come into focus once the market starts to price in tapering by the FED.

Thus, that means all eyes will be on the incoming US data in the next few weeks and months as the markets will use that as a gauge for when the FED will start ramping up their tapering discussions.

We’ll go through all of that in this week’s week ahead video.


Highlights of the video:

00:49 – Current Baseline
05:13 – Baseline expectations for the upcoming week
11:02 – Sentiment Shifts & Trade Plan


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