Trade Forex With High Probability Setups
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Why Professional Traders Use A Forex News Feed To Trade - https://youtu.be/orgG56L5H7M

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Whenever we approach the market, we do so from a probability basis. We're always looking for the highest probability moves or the balance of probabilities to be in our favor. What we saw this morning was that we had quite the move to the upside in global equities across the board over the last couple of sessions, over the last few weeks, especially looking at something like technology. We've been treading so close to all time highs. There's been quite a few of these sentiment based indicators where equity is also pointing to a little bit of over-exuberance right now in terms of the equity space. More importantly, what we mentioned was that we had a few key assets that were basically showing us a similar inflection point. What I mean by that was we were trading at all-time highs a little bit earlier for something like the NASDAQ, while we were floating around a very key area of support for something like the VIX.

With equity so stretched to the upside, even though volatility has been treading in a fairly close range, in terms of the balance of probabilities with it already being at all-time high, with it being at support, and at the same stage looking at something like the dollar, which recently has seen that strong inverse correlation to stocks. That's also looking a little bit more resilient over the last few sessions. In terms of the balance of probabilities, what we said was that if we see a little bit of a pullback in something like equities, we wouldn't be too surprised, even though it changes nothing in terms of that medium term bias. The VIX volatility is going to be a key one for us if we do spike to the upside. Of course, that is what happened. It's probably going to see a flash to the downside in equities, and that obviously played out.

Now I think the more important question isn't how we knew it would have happened. Firstly, we didn't know. It was just in terms of the balance of probabilities, which is why in terms of the 30 day trades, I've stayed very patient today waiting to see how the market trades around these key levels with that little inflection point that we saw in the markets. I think the most important one isn't how we knew. Firstly, we didn't. It's just probability. The more important is what to do now. After we've had this move, it's a move that we anticipated to happen. Again, it wasn't something solid that we knew okay, this is definitely going to happen. We never know. It's just the balance of probabilities.


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