Big NFP Miss Puts CPI In Focus
YIKES! That was our first reaction after seeing Friday’s NFP print. With this type of big divergence between expectations and actual it might be more candour to have called last week’s NFP estimates “guesses” rather than “forecasts”. Despite the miss, there was some positives under the hood.
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We interpret and explain price moves in real-time, 24 hours a day. Our team of analysts produce text, video and audio commentary.
You understand the markets and trade with confidence. Learn more at our website here: https://financialsource.co
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So, how did the markets take the bad NFP print on Friday? Pretty much as you would expect apart from a twist at the end. Equities pushed higher as the miss means that policy normalization was still far away for the FED.
The Dollar pushed lower as Eurodollar futures started to push back rate hike expectations. The surprising move though was the fast U-turn in US10Y, which was mostly driven by the jump in inflation expectations.
Even though the report saw a big miss on the headline, the earnings saw a decent print and combined with the low headline print saw market participants fearing a rise in wage inflation as companies might need to hike wages in order to incentivise people to join the labour force.
That means this week’s CPI is in focus for the week ahead and that could mean some interesting moves in US10Y and thus could be an interesting week for the USDJPY.
We’ll go through all of that in this week’s week ahead video.
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Highlights of the video:
00:20 – Current Baseline
05:57 – Baseline expectations for the upcoming week
09:25 – Sentiment Shifts & Trade Plan
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If you find these weekly analysis and trade ideas useful, you’ll love Financial Source. There’s a link below where you can learn more about it
https://financialsource.co
----
We interpret and explain price moves in real-time, 24 hours a day. Our team of analysts produce text, video and audio commentary.
You understand the markets and trade with confidence. Learn more at our website here: https://financialsource.co
-----
So, how did the markets take the bad NFP print on Friday? Pretty much as you would expect apart from a twist at the end. Equities pushed higher as the miss means that policy normalization was still far away for the FED.
The Dollar pushed lower as Eurodollar futures started to push back rate hike expectations. The surprising move though was the fast U-turn in US10Y, which was mostly driven by the jump in inflation expectations.
Even though the report saw a big miss on the headline, the earnings saw a decent print and combined with the low headline print saw market participants fearing a rise in wage inflation as companies might need to hike wages in order to incentivise people to join the labour force.
That means this week’s CPI is in focus for the week ahead and that could mean some interesting moves in US10Y and thus could be an interesting week for the USDJPY.
We’ll go through all of that in this week’s week ahead video.
-----
Highlights of the video:
00:20 – Current Baseline
05:57 – Baseline expectations for the upcoming week
09:25 – Sentiment Shifts & Trade Plan
----
If you find these weekly analysis and trade ideas useful, you’ll love Financial Source. There’s a link below where you can learn more about it
https://financialsource.co
