Very Important US Jobs Data
This week’s NFP print will arguably be one of the most important data points for 2021 so far…


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Right now, the Fed (both hawks and doves) seems satisfied that the Fed has achieved their inflation goals, even after accounting for some expected deceleration in price pressures.

However, the one area where they have all pointed to for more data is employment. It seems that the majority of Fed members will be happy to conduct tapering sooner and faster IF we see another one or two solid NFP prints.

Thus, another solid print like we’ve seen recently will be enough to seal the deal for a tapering announcement in Sep, with the actual start possibly in Nov, and depending on the size of beat the market could price in an earlier run-off by the start of H2 2022.

A faster tapering pace (30bln versus 15bln) would not just see QE ending faster than the current consensus expects, but if that happens it will arguably bring forward hike expectations to Q4 2022.

As always, more on this and how we look to take advantage of that in our week ahead video.


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