Can Fiscal Policy Save The Day?
Market attention in the week ahead will turn to US politics as discussions about the next stimulus bill continues. To make things a little more interesting we also have the possibility of additional US/China tensions, another FOMC meeting and Q2 GDP for the US and EU.

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After a quiet week on the data front last week, things are looking a lot more exciting in the week ahead. We have FOMC coming up on Wednesday, Q2 GDP releases for the US and EU.

There is also the ongoing possibility of further negative comments, rhetoric, tweets or retaliatory actions between the US and China. Despite all of these possible macro market drivers, the main event to watch will be the ongoing stimulus bill negotiations in the US.

The US is currently heading towards a possible fiscal cliff-edge if some of the important stimulus measures such as employment benefits are not renewed by the end of the week. According to some stats, the jump in recent consumer spending metrics has largely been a result of the stimulus cheques and employment benefit payments.

Thus, if all of that suddenly stops, or continues but at far lesser amounts, that doesn’t paint a very pretty picture for the US recovery, especially since recent high-frequency data such as the New York Fed Weekly Economic Index has started to slow down and turn lower.

So, there is plenty of events to look forward to in the week ahead, and this week’s video will help you prepare for the upcoming events and provide insights into how you could possibly trade them as well.

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Highlights of the video:

00:57 – Current Baseline
03:34 – Baseline expectations for the upcoming risk event
08:43 – Possible sentiment shifts
11:55 – Possible currency pairs to consider

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