Will Market History Repeat Itself?
It’s August! Which can be a time of year where some traders get nervous. Why is that you ask? Historically speaking, August’s seasonality doesn’t play nice with a couple of securities like certain equity indexes and the high beta currencies. So, the big question then is will market history repeat itself?
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Learn how to turn news into profits with our market commentary - learn more here – https://bit.ly/30kD1pT
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Let’s take a quick lesson in history to see why August is such a big deal to a few traders. According to CNBC, August has been the worst month for the Dow Jones and the S&P since 1987, yikes!
August is also a messy one for GBP with GBPUSD having fallen 8 times of the past 10. It’s also the worst month for the NZD and has seen AUD take a beating in all but one year in the last 9. But it’s not all doom and gloom as T-Notes usually do pretty having risen 8 of the past 10 years in August.
So, the big question then is will market history repeat itself?
Well, July and August summer months are known for its thinner liquidity and lighter volume so maybe that has something to do with it. Also, if everyone thinks something will happen, it might be self-fulfilling from a behavioural finance point of view.
After a very big week for the USD, to the downside that is, we saw key resistance levels on pair like EURUSD and GBPUSD crumble. However, with seasonal factors set aside, some of the reasons that led to the Dollar’s decline has eases slightly, so interesting week ahead indeed.
In the upcoming week there are a few events and themes we need to keep track of ranging from virus developments, economic data, central bank meetings and fiscal policy negotiations.
This week’s video will help you prepare for the upcoming events and provide insights into how you could possibly trade them as well.
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Highlights of the video:
01:08 – Current Baseline
04:01 – Baseline expectations for the upcoming risk event
09:07 – Possible sentiment shifts
12:01 – Possible currency pairs to consider
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If you find these weekly analysis and trade ideas useful, you’ll love Forex Source. There’s a link below were you can learn more about it
https://bit.ly/30kD1pT
-----
Learn how to turn news into profits with our market commentary - learn more here – https://bit.ly/30kD1pT
----
Let’s take a quick lesson in history to see why August is such a big deal to a few traders. According to CNBC, August has been the worst month for the Dow Jones and the S&P since 1987, yikes!
August is also a messy one for GBP with GBPUSD having fallen 8 times of the past 10. It’s also the worst month for the NZD and has seen AUD take a beating in all but one year in the last 9. But it’s not all doom and gloom as T-Notes usually do pretty having risen 8 of the past 10 years in August.
So, the big question then is will market history repeat itself?
Well, July and August summer months are known for its thinner liquidity and lighter volume so maybe that has something to do with it. Also, if everyone thinks something will happen, it might be self-fulfilling from a behavioural finance point of view.
After a very big week for the USD, to the downside that is, we saw key resistance levels on pair like EURUSD and GBPUSD crumble. However, with seasonal factors set aside, some of the reasons that led to the Dollar’s decline has eases slightly, so interesting week ahead indeed.
In the upcoming week there are a few events and themes we need to keep track of ranging from virus developments, economic data, central bank meetings and fiscal policy negotiations.
This week’s video will help you prepare for the upcoming events and provide insights into how you could possibly trade them as well.
----
Highlights of the video:
01:08 – Current Baseline
04:01 – Baseline expectations for the upcoming risk event
09:07 – Possible sentiment shifts
12:01 – Possible currency pairs to consider
----
If you find these weekly analysis and trade ideas useful, you’ll love Forex Source. There’s a link below were you can learn more about it
https://bit.ly/30kD1pT
