I think I speak for the majority of market participants when I say I’m ready for the Brexit rigmarole to finally come to an end. Negotiations has, as expected, come down to the wires with only a few short weeks to go before the end of the transition period on the last day of December. The good news is that the end is finally in sight!

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Market participants are still coiled and ready for a deal outcome, and things have been moving in the right direction.

Negotiators have said that there is reasonable expectations that a barebones deal is ready as soon as this upcoming week. They’ve also reported that they have completed legal texts for all of the topics, apart from the three contentious topics of fisheries, state aid and the dispute mechanism.

So, if that’s the case why haven’t the Pound rallied more this past week? Well, the markets still expect a deal to be reached but given the recent price action it seems like participants are waiting for concrete breakthroughs.

With a quiet econ calendar and Thanksgiving holiday coming up on Thursday we might have thinner liquidity and lower volumes in the week ahead. Why is this important? Well, any potential breakthroughs on breakdowns in talks might see more exacerbated moves.

Make sure to catch our week ahead video that goes into more detail on this week’s Brexit focus.

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Highlights of the video:

00:15 – Current Baseline
02:36 – Baseline expectations for the upcoming risk event
05:51 – Sentiment Shifts & Trade Plan

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