Big Week For The Energy Market
Yes, of course Brexit is still in focus as well as some important US data points like NFP and the two ISM PMI’s, but another interesting event we’ll be watching closely is the upcoming OPEC and OPEC+ virtual meetings on Monday and Tuesday which could provide some great trading opportunities.

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Oil prices has been on quite the journey in 2020 going from negative prices for the first time ever to $45 in the past few months. The road to $45 has been a bit bumpy though after hitting solid resistance at $43 and seeing some downside pressure in September and October.

There has been a couple of things that has supported oil prices such as a broad-based Dollar depreciation, OPEC’s production cuts, reduced oil volatility and more recently the vaccine optimism.

The good news about vaccines has seen market participants re-evaluate their expectations for oil demand in 2021 as has been clear by the move from contango to backwardation in oil futures curve.

The upcoming OPEC and OPEC+ meetings on Monday and Tuesday is expected to see the cartel delay their phase 3 production cut tapering by 3 months. However, with that already baked into the price, and with vaccine optimism keeping prices elevated, we might be in store for some surprises this week.

We’ll go through various tradable scenarios in our week ahead video https://bit.ly/338oheH

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Highlights of the video:

00:39 – Current Baseline
03:32 – Baseline expectations for the upcoming risk event
07:35 – Sentiment Shifts & Trade Plan

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